Evenementengids: Canadian Consumer Price Index-rate (August 2023)
Watch out, Canadian merchants!Canada will release a new set of Consumer Price indices soon, and it is likely to influence the Bank of Canada's policy expectations.What do number calculators expect and how might CAD pairs react?Tuesday September 19, 2023 (Tuesday), 12:30 Gmt inflation data for Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) and August 2023 Use our Forex Market Opening Hours tool to convert GMT to your local time zone.Application of the CAD chart from TradingViewEvent results/price action to the main currency: Canada's general Consumer Price Index exceeded expectations for July and stood at 0.6% m / m against an expected increase of 0.4% and a previous increase of 0.1%. The basic version of the report matched the forecast of an increase of 0.5%. However, the upbeat numbers did not provide any particular benefit to Canadians, as broader market themes pressured the commodity currency for most of the week.Sunday Sunday risk environment and behavior: Flows from risks remained in force during the trading week as concerns about China's economic Deceleration and financial stability increased the demand for safe assets.As it turned out, the leading Chinese developer of private properties, Country Garden, missed some bond payouts and suspended bidding on 11 land projects. ties.In addition, the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates further has also curbed the risk trend as traders continue to October wary of a possible recession.Placing the CAD graph on the graph of major currencies from TradingViewEvent results/ price action: Canada's general consumer prices index fell short of forecasts for June and was 2.8% year-on-year- In one year, compared to an estimate of 3.0% and a previous estimate of 3.4%. The underlying value also failed to reach 3.2% year-on-year against the consensus forecast of 3.6%.After consolidating at the beginning of the week and an initial drop when the actual figures were published, the Canadian dollar managed to get back on its feet and even ended the week higher than most other currencies. Their analogues are probably a result of traders assessing the potential benefits of rising oil prices for Canada.Sunday Sunday risk environment and behavior in the inter-market market: Risk aversion has actually been a dominant topic this trading week, but the Canadian dollar has managed to break out of the Deceleration trend in favor of higher earnings.The easing of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the possibility of an early stage increase in global financial costs have reduced the risk trend, but comdoll seems to have benefited from the efforts of the People's Bank of China to support China's economic activities.Probability of Risk Tolerance: Market participants may be excited at the beginning of this trading week, as the four major central banks will announce their policy decisions later.In particular, the FOMC's statement and updated projections may turn into the spotlight, so traders may not try to make big bets or hold positions until the actual announcement.However, expectations of a somewhat hawkish attitude by the Fed and the Bank of England may provoke a negative reaction, as the possibility of increasing the cost of borrowing in the future may revive fears about a recession.Potential base case scenario: Since the Bank of England decided to suspend interest rate hikes in the secondIn addition, traders may closely study the consumer price October reports to assess whether the bank of Canada is likely to recover its positions soon.Although the leading indicators look mixed, most point to moderate inflation pressures in August.If that's the case, the Canadian dollar could sell off quickly if the actual figures don't match the forecasts, because that means the Boc will most likely run out of free hands.In this scenario, if risk aversion is observed at the beginning of the week, pay attention to the possibility of intraday short CAD positions against low-yielding currencies such as JPY, CHF and USD.An alternative scenario: Stronger-than-expected inflation data could be enough to convince some crazy bulls that the Bank of England may tighten policy sooner rather than later. After all, the PMI figures for August point to a marked increase in consumer inflation.If so, get ready to look for long-term positions of the Canadian dollar against currencies with more cautious central banks (ECB and RBA). There may also be long opportunities for CAD against the New Zealand dollar, but the movement may be limited until New Zealand's quarterly GDP data, which is expected on Wednesday.In both scenarios, keep in mind that this week's calendar is filled with top-level catalysts from around the world. It's probably a good idea to stay vigilant this week and adjust risk management plans to fit potentially shocking conditions, because traders will probably shift their attention on a daily basis, except for major unexpected events that overshadow what is currently indicated on the calendar.