The Week ahead in the foreign exchange market (September 18-22): A busy week with central bank decisions, consumer price index publications and global business activity index updates
News traders are expecting a busy week as they receive information about monetary policies for September from the four largest central banks.We will also see potential Sunday changes, such as New Zealand's GDP data, Canada's and the U.K.'s consumer Price Index, and many PMI-related reports from around the world.Despite all this, ICYMI, last week I wrote a summary of the market issues pushing currency pairs. Check this out!Now let's move on to the detailed economic indicators on this week's calendar: we know that the monthly and overall CPI in Canada from the August issue was higher than expected, while the key indicators in July remained consistently high.At 12:30 GMT on Tuesday, markets expect the overall consumer price index to slow to 0.6% from 0.3%, while the annual rate could rise to 3.3% from 3.9% and the baseline could accelerate to 3.2% from 3.5%. After the Bank of England suspends the interest rate at 5.00% next month from earlier this year, traders could closely study the consumer price index reports to assess whether the bank of Canada will regain its positions soon.Data for July showed us that total annual inflation in the UK fell from 7.9% to 6.8%, while core inflation remained at 6.9%.Will consumer prices stay stubbornly high in August? At 11:00 GMT on September 21, analysts expect overall inflation to rise once again, this time from 6.8% to 7.1%, while the baseline will fall from 6.9% to 6.7%. Depending on how traders will react to the fact that the UK potentially needs a tighter monetary policy, the British pound may suffer from signs of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England.According to the Fed's CmeThe central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50% as of 18.00 GMT on September 20.But more attention is likely to be paid to the Fed's spot projections, which may or may not confirm that the Fed will raise the interest rate once again before the end of the year. Some volatility can also be seen in the press 30 minutes after the publication of the decision.If Fed members adjust their projections to no longer reflect rate hikes this year, or if we see plans to cut rates early next year, the US dollar may lose some of its September growth or start a downward trend against its main competitors in the long run.In an interview in late June, the president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Jordan, said that the recent increase in the SNB rate is probably not enough to bring inflation in Switzerland under control. This came a few days after the central bank raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. he points to 1.75%.But that was in June. Since then, a number of other major central banks have raised their rates, while inflation in Switzerland rose by 1.2% year-on-year in August.At 7:30 am GMT on September 21, market participants expect the central bank to continue raising interest rates from 1.75% to 2.00%. Probably the press will follow the reaction and if we hear about the hawks from the SNB, the Swiss franc can improve its reputation as an alternative to safe havens in the European region.The latest data on the UK are mixed: economic growth and business are slowing, but prices and wage inflation remain persistently high.This is probably why traders see The Bank of England (BOE) is raising its interest rate by 25 bp to 5.50% as of 11:00 GMT on September 21.Pay attention to the Bank of England's vote, which may give us an idea of how many more rate hikes we expect from Governor Bailey and his team in the near future.Unlike other major central bank events, market participants expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to keep monetary policy unchanged this week.This does not mean that we will not see increased volatility of the yen! The Bank of Japan will issue a statement during the Asian session on September 22, where we can see comments on the yen's weakness and perhaps hawkish hints pushing the yen higher.Another month, another chance to get an idea of business activity trends in the largest economies!Thursday September 21st, 23:00 GMT Australia will start the parade and it is possible that we will see lower figures for both the manufacturing and the service sector. Japan on Friday (12:30 GMT) is leading the way with a potentially higher manufacturing pmi but a lower pmi in the services sector. France (7:15 a.m. GMT) may see small improvements in both sectors, while Germany (7:30 a.m. GMT) may show weaker performance in the service sector, while showing higher production figures.The index of business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector (8:00 GMT) may increase even if the index of business activity in the service sector falls. The same for the UK (at 8:30 GMT), although there may be improvement in manufacturing, there may be weaker indicators in business activity in the service sector. Last but not least, the US (14:45 GMT), which is expected to show a stable index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, and a slightly higher index of service sector activity than the figures for August.