
A peace deal, if it comes, will not mean the Gulf region has become stable. It will only mean that current tensions have been paused. The kind of conflict that has unfolded in the region does not vanish because one agreement is signed. The probability of another flare-up after one month, two months, three months, or even six months remains high. The region will continue to matter for crude, global liquidity, inflation expectations and risk appetite. So, yes, the market may get some breathing room. But investors should not confuse it with a clean road.